The Shifting Sands of the Arab Spring

Trying to make sense of the shifting sands of the Arab Spring invokes the full gamut of emotions. Ranging from unbridled optimism, to the depths of despair balanced by occasional heights of anticipation fuelled by unreal expectation. Arab commentators have tried to identify a consistent thread through the various uprisings and upheavals throughout the Middle East region but to little or no avail
The uprisings and turmoil began following the death of Mohammed Bu Azizi in Tunisia.His self-immolation arising out of his treatment at the hands of the police coupled with the indignity of years of unemployment led him to carry out his act of utter despair. His sacrifice led to an outbreak of national indignation and Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali the first of the tyrants to face the wrath of an outraged population fled to Saudi Arabia to avoid justice at the hands of the Tunisian people. The apparent ease and haste with which Ben Ali left lulled many in the region into the false hope that other tyrants would leave with similar ease. Subsequent events around the Arab world during those feverish and dramatic spring months would prove otherwise. Even Ben Ali’s reasons for his hasty departure were given a new spin. In statements made on his behalf by his lawyer. Ben Ali argued that he had only left Tunisia to install his widely reviled wife in Jeddah. He had been warned by his staff, that his family were facing imminent threats to their life.Ben Ali claims that he had ordered his Tunisian air crew to wait at the tarmac at Jeddah for him to return, but subsequently discovered that the flight had departed to Tunisia leaving him stranded in Saudi Arabia.But as Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is discovering now once you arrive as a “guest” of the Saudis it is not so easy to pry yourself loose.
When it dawned upon King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia that Hosni Mubarak of Egypt may follow in quick succession to Ben Ali and seek exile in Saudi Arabia,thus giving the desert kingdom the unenviable reputation of offering refuge to a succession of dictators and corrupt politicians ranging from the late General Idi Amin of Uganda to Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. King Abdullah felt compelled to intervene, by ringing Hosni Mubarak from Morocco, were he was convalescing and ordering him to stand up to the protesters in Tahrir Square.Of course this only delayed the inevitable by a few weeks, and did not alter Mubarak’s eventual fate.
Ben Ali before departing, appointed his successors in Tunisia from amongst his own cronies, and they being equally anxious to deflect any attention from themselves promptly placed him on trial on last Monday for embezzlement of millions of dollars from the state exchequer.Neither Ben Ali nor his lawyers were present at court and the kangaroo court, for it could be described as nothing else, promptly convicted him by the end of the day amongst chaotic scenes and sentenced both Ben Ali and his wife to 35 years in absentia.
One can only hope that this does not set a precedent for future trials of tyrants in the region. The trial of Hosni Mubarak is coming up soon in September and it would be a travesty if he were to suffer the same fate.It is esential that a clear demarcation be made between the practices of a tyrant and his regime, and the practice of a new democratic government that is installed in its place.Nothing would enhance the repuation of the successor governments and grant them the legitimacy that they so desperately crave than to show to the world that they adhere to the rule of law,and by so doing lay bare the corruption and cruelty of the previous regime.There will be some remnants of the former regime who have survived so far, and have a vested interest in not delving too deeply into the deep and dark secrets of 30+ years of coruption and injustice which might be laid bare through a fair and transparent trial, but this is even more reason to bring to account and banish once and for all the ghosts of these tyrants and their cronies and supporters.
Both Egypt and Tunisia have one thing in common, in that both have not truly shaken off remnants of the former regimes.Tunisians are increasingly restless and jaundiced as they see the same old faces remaining in power and are with increasing frequency questioning whether or not a true change in the power structure has taken place in Tunisia.The same mood of restlessness can be seen in Egypt, but this has been muted so far as there is a reluctance to accuse the transitional military government outright of dragging its feet towards reform.
There is also the promise of elections that Egyptians are nervously looking forward to. The Muslim Brotherhood has undergone a complete makeover and presents its most moderate face forward. By way of example it points out its pluralistic credentials by highlighting the fact that a few of its original founding members were Coptic Christians and to reinforce the point it has recently appointed a Copt as one of its leaders.Their is little doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood that Gamel Abdul Nasser and Anwar Sadaat feared so much has undergone a major change in its thinking. Some of its former leading lights such Ayman Al Zawahiri and Sayid Qutub would today denounce its moderation and adoption of democracy.But whilst the Muslim Brotherhood is able to hold out a clean pair of hands in terms of corruption and not being tainted by association to the regime of Mubarak, which in itself is no mean thing, considering the widespread corruption endemic in all reaches of the Mubarak regime. Their still remains a fear amongst Egyptians that the Brotherhood may simply be putting on a façade, and once in power would revert to type.The fear of counter revolution in the style of the Iranian revolution leaves a nagging doubt hanging over the Brotherhood.What is clear is that Mohammed Al Baradei and Amr Mousa, the candidates that Egyptians perceived were being foisted upon them by the west have been roundly rejected by most Egyptians.The perception is that this has left the field wide open to the Brotherhood simply by virtue of their being an absence of any other viable candidate who can claim the same clean and untainted hands as the Brotherhood have displayed.As the elections draw closer there is an uneasy air in Cairo as Egyptians wonder whether the unappealing prospect of a Brotherhood victory may persuade the military to step in and either postpone or take over in Egypt.
Field Marshal Tantawi a 1973 Egyptian war hero has been content for Mubarak and his family and cronies to take most of the blame, and has alllowed the arrest not only of Mubarak’s venal sons, but also that of Suzanne Mubarak his Welsh born wife. Although her prompt re-payment of some £20 million in illgotten gains resulted in her early release much to the chagrin of most Egyptians.
The total lack of transparency and accountability of all of its dictators and tyrants has been the hallmark of the region, understandably whilst in office but inexplicably once they have been deposed.(Here they have much in common with Pakistan).For there to be any meaning to the new mood of optimism in the region it is essential that transparency and accountability are to the fore and the pantomime of the trial held in Tunisia is not replicated elsewhere. For without transparency there is no democracy and for the much heralded Arab Spring to have true meaning it should have legitimacy and clearly distinguish itself through its actions from the regimes and misdeeds of the past. Although not related to the middle east but as an illustrative point one looks at the regime of Musharraf in Pakistan who rather than leave his arch nemesis Nawaz Sharif to languish in jail following his conviction and sentence opted for the rather novel, but age old practice of exile. Musharraf agreed to send Sharif to Saudi Arabia with his fortune and ill-gotten gains largely intact. Sharif having agreed to forsake politics as part of the Saudi brokered deal eventually reneged on the deal, and having returned to Pakistan is once again in a position to indulge in his venal politics. Ultimately, this was all rushed through through a desire for a quick fix, to save face, and not cause humiliation to Nawaz Sharif. The same Musharraf who colluded with the Saudis in depriving the people of Pakistan the justice and accountability that they deserved with the sentencing of Sharif, ironically now finds himself in exile, and unable to return himself to Pakistan himself.
The Saudi penchant for arranging these fixes and backroom deals should not be replicated and no other dictator should be allowed to leave and seek sanctuary in the desert kingdom or anywhere for that matter .Whilst the concept of loss of face and the preservation of honour and dignity is prevalent in Arab society, the activists and young people driving the Arab spring today recognise that the bringing to book and holding to account the corruption and terrorism of the tyrants and rulers is in itself an honorable act, and legitimises the aspirations of the Arab spring.
The Nazi leaders who were responsible for genocide, murder and tyranny on a far greater scale than any of the current leaders in the Middle East were all afforded trials at Nuremburg. Those trials laid out in great depth and detail the horrors of Fascism and Nazism in so comprehensive a fashion that both its proponents and the virulent ideaology that they represented were banished and discredited for generations. A more recent example were the Tuth & Reconciliation Commissions in South Africa that laid bare the evil of the apartheid regime but helped heal a nation that many predicted would descend into civil war. That should be the justice meted out to Asad of Syria and his Baathist thugs and Qadaffi of Libya.Both have presided over kleptocracies masquerading as socialist havens, whilst all the time bleeding their countries dry for the enrichment of the favoured few at the cost of the disenfranchised & dispossessed many.
Qadaffi’s recent indictment for war crimes by the ICC may have caused some joy to the beleaguered citizens of Misrata but in general there is a mistrust of the ICC amongst most in the Arab world. They recall the indictments issued against Omar Al Bashir for war crimes in Darfur and recall that he remains in power today and continues to act with impunity. Even more pertinent for the Arab street is the knowledge that no Israeli/US politician or General will be hauled before the ICC. That glaring anomaly alone is sufficient for most Arabs to disregard the efforts of the ICC.
For the first time in generations Arabs are waking up to a new age where the past giants of the Arab world Syria and Egypt are gripped in domestic paralysis whilst they chart their future. That paralysis may last for an entire generation. No longer will these two behemoths of the Arab world be striding across the Arab stage at the forums of the Arab League or dictating the course of the Middle East peace process with Israel. Instead new players are jockeying for power and influence and a leading position, as champions of the Arab world.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia’s prompt but ultimately futile attempt to persuade Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to face down the protesters encouraged the Saudis to take a more proactive and decisive role in Bahrain. Here the Saudis drew a line in the sand and ordered their troops and tanks across the causeway into Bahrain to bolster the regime of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa as it tried to hold back the wave of protests that engulfed the regime.The gratitude of the Bahrainis to their Saudi patrons is all too visible as one looks at all the public buildings plastered with pictures of the smiling King and his Saudi benefactor.The great monument at Pearl Square was quickly bulldozed lest their be any reminder or traces of the nascent protest movement.
King Abdullah’s decade old peace plan for the Palestinian/Israeli standoff has been hurriedly dusted off and is being touted across the region. Some Israelis perhaps recognising that there were major changes afoot in the Arab world started to refer to the Abdullah plan as a basis of any future deal. Prince Turki Al Feisal a former Saudi Interior Minister and brother of the current Foreign Minister in a major article for the Washington Post warned the US that the Saudis will not take too kindly to any attempt by the US to frustrate the move by the Palestinians to declare sovereignity and seek recognition at the UN in September this year. Saudi Arabia was making it clear that it was taking a lead in Arab affairs and in an unprecedented move was willing to face a falling out with its main ally the United States, later in the year. Somebody described Turki Al Feisal’s article as akin to the Saudis parking their tanks on the Obama White House lawn.
For the first time commentators in the Gulf have started to refer to a new term. The return of Turkey as a key player in the region has led Arab commentators to refer to a new Ottomanism as under the newly elected Recip Tayyip Erdogan Turkey once again started to flex its muscle and influence across the region. The new generation of Arabs do no hold the jaundiced view that many older Arabs have for their former colonial masters. The Ottomans arose mixed emotions in the Arab world. Having faced repeated rejection by the West in its application to join the EU, Turkey had finally decided to turn its back on any further attempt to pursue an increasingly futile attempt at membership of the EU.A rejection that Europe may yet come to regret. Instead, Turkey looked towards the Arab/Muslim world. Buoyed by unprecedented economic growth and a new confidence in world and regional affairs evidenced by Turkeys involvement in facilitating peace talks between both the Taliban and Afghanistan and talking to disparate Palestinian groups and speaking out loudly against Israel’s siege of Gaza has won Turkey many friends. Increasingly, Arab commentators are referring admiringly to the Turkish model of democracy and Islam as a future goal for the Arab world.It did not go unoticed throughout the region that in Erdogan’s victory speech following his sweeping victory he was unashamed at hiding Turkish aspirations as he declared that “Believe me, Sarajevo won today as much as Istanbul, Beirut won as much as Izmir, Damascus won as much as Ankara, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, the West Bank, Jerusalem won as much as Diyarbakir.”.
This is a new resurgent Turkey willing to denounce the brutality of Syrian oppression by the Asad regime and opening its borders to Syrian refugees despite a recent thawing of relations between the two neighbours. To display its maturity and reassure the US perhaps, Turkey announced this week that it would not be allowing its ship the Mavi Marmara to take part in the Gaza flotilla that departs later this year in an attempt to break the Israeli siege. But Arabs will not forget Erdogan’s public dressing down of Shimon Peres at the Davos World summit early in 2010. For years the Turkish democratic model had been derided in the Arab world. The sight of Muslim women being banned from wearing the Hijab, and Islamic practice and adherence firmly kept in the background in Turkey ensured that any pretensions that Turkey may have had to speak for the Muslim world were firmly quashed. But no longer so, as Arab commentators speak admiringly of the Turkish model as a vision worth emulating by the wider Arab world. Its accommodation and adoption of modernity within a loose Islamic framework that allowed personal freedom and democracy chimed with the spirit and zeitgeist of the times.
The only discordant note in the Arab spring is set by the other great player in the region, Iran. The Arab world has been at loggerheads with the Persians for centuries and fears of Persian influence and conspiracy are rife throughout the region. Whether it is the accusations by the Bahrainis that Iranians were behind the recent uprising in Bahrain, and armed and provided material support to the Shia rebels, or meddling in Nouri Al Maliki’s government in Iraq.
The Saudis sitting on a sea of oil and enjoying the benefits of the ever increasing price of a barrel of oil and Turkey enjoying the benefits of becoming a regional trading and manufacturing hub can afford to dabble in the affairs of the region.But unlike Turkey and Saudi Arabia which can both rely upon their relative economic stability, Iran crippled by decades of sanctions faces serious domestic upheavals that make it less of a threat than the West might think.
The tottering Syrian regime has lost Iran one of its major Arab allies.It remains to be seen whether the new Hizbollah dominated government of Najib Miqati in Lebanon can survive without the support of Walid Jumblatt’s Druze party or Saad Hariri’s Sunni or the large Christian minority. Couple that with the Iranian support for the recalcitrant Hamas in Gaza and the regimes reputation for troublemaking and mischief making has gained it pariah status in the region let alone in the febrile mind of Washington. Ahmadinejad’s occasional outburst and uncompromising attitude towards Israel played to the gallery and the Arab street found his insouciance and gall amusing, as Iran cocked a snook to Israel and the US.When the Iranian leadership recently made the the somewhat ludicrous claim that the Arab spring was a continuation of Khomein’s Iranian revolution of some thirty years before, it was met with ridicule and resentment at this Persian attempt to usurp a uniquely Arab movement.The gulf between the two is illustrated by the inability of either to agree the name of the ocean that divides them.The Arabs jealously refer to the Arabian Gulf and the Iranian are as adamant that it should remain the Persian Gulf, an illustration of the centuries old suspicion and hostility that the two share. The simplistic view that the minority Arab Shia may turn to Shia Iran for support or even forge an alliance is largely a fallacy. The Arab Shia are Arab first and although at times their may be a convergence of interest, this is unlikely to ever be of a permanent nature.
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The Arab spring augurs well for the region and the world in general. As long as it is recognised that it is a work in progress, and that it only gains legitimacy and authenticity by being acknowledged as an organic Arab led movement, the signs of it leading to permanent change are manifest. The West’s age old canard of Arab exceptionalism and the argument that Islam could not accommodate democracy is being laid to rest. And yet the sight of NATO jets bombing civilians in Tripoli has damaged the authenticity of the Libyan rebels and they have lost some of the initial authority that the Arab world had granted them.
The incessant cry of “something must be done” at the next wave of Syrian refugees must be resisted by the West. Accusations will of course be made of western indifference and double standards and calls for intervention but these must all be resisted. Similar calls were made during the Prague spring in Czechoslovakia, the precursor to today’s movements. That was crushed and trampled under the tracks of Soviet tanks, but cool heads prevailed and despite the cries and demonstrations of student protesters on campuses throughout the West, the US and its allies held back and chose not to intervene.
and clamour for the day that they wrest control of their destinies from the tyrants that have suppressed and thwarted their ambitions and aspirations for decades.The West should allow that happen.